NeuroNow, a mid-market biopharma company, seeks to project revenues and determine breakeven time for a new oral multiple sclerosis (MS) drug. The case involves market sizing, estimating market share, and analyzing risks and benefits of phase 3 trials investment. Key findings include:
- Potential 896,400 MS patients treated with oral medication over 5 years
- NeuroNow expected to capture 40% market share
- Breakeven in just over 1 year after launch
- Projected $1.9 billion profit (44% margin) over 5 years
- Risks include clinical trial failure, competitor response, and regulatory changes
Recommendation: Proceed with phase 3 trials and further investments due to quick breakeven, high profit potential, and growing market with unmet needs.