Bill’s Chips must select which geographic market and flavor combination will maximize profitability over 3 years. The analysis reveals Western Europe as the target market, and Lime Kiwi as the optimal flavor, generating ~$17.2M in Year 3 profit.
Key Insights:
- Market evaluation requires calculating Year 3 market sizes using compound growth rates, not just looking at Year 0 penetration
- The largest Year 3 market opportunity (Western Europe: 8.6-8.7M units) differs from highest growth rate (Brazil at 20% annually)
- Profitability per unit varies significantly by flavor/product (Lime Kiwi: $2.00 margin vs Beer Battered Cod: $1.50) due to ingredient and manufacturing costs
- Candidates should demonstrate efficient calculation shortcuts (e.g., 1.05^3 ≈ 1.15) rather than year-by-year iteration
- The case tests both analytical rigor (market math) and business judgment (why penetration and flavor profitability vary across markets)