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Medium Market Entry Revenue Forecasting

Shisha: Just Blowing Smoke?

#Non-profit #Consumer Goods #Revenue Generation
ProHub Comment

This case requires candidates to evaluate alternative licensing structures and forecast revenue across a multi-year period using restaurant market data. The case tests quantitative ability, market sizing skills, and the ability to consider broader social and regulatory implications of monetizing a traditionally home-consumed product in an Islamic cultural context.

Estimated Time 26 minutes
Difficulty Medium
Source Darden
10 / 100
Over the past five years, the government of Saudi Arabia has been focused on reducing economic dependence on oil by diversifying the domestic economy. As part of this effort, the government has evidenced a willingness to relax certain social norms. As part of the diversification initiative, the government hired us to forecast the potential revenue impact of taxing shisha consumption.

Clarifying Information

  1. What is shisha? Shisha is an instrument for vaporizing and smoking flavored tobacco. In the Arab world and Middle East, people smoke waterpipes as part of the cultural traditions.
  2. How will the Saudi government make money off of shisha? Institutions must apply and pay for an annual license to sell shisha. Additionally, sales tax and import tariffs are levied by the government as appropriate.
  3. Is there a specific revenue target in mind? No, the Saudi government only wishes to maximize revenue over a 3-year period.
  4. How much revenue does the Saudi government currently earn? 2.5 trillion Saudi riyal annually. Tobacco and other related products currently generate 500 million SAR in revenue.
  5. Are there any social norms we should be aware of? Islam is widely practiced by Saudis citizens and governs their personal, political, economic and legal lives. Additionally, public consumption of shisha is currently banned but is widely consumed at home.
Mock Interview
Interviewer

Over the past five years, the government of Saudi Arabia has been focused on reducing economic dependence on oil by diversifying the domestic economy. As part of this effort, the government has evidenced a willingness to relax certain social norms. As part of the diversification initiative, the government hired us to forecast the potential revenue impact of taxing shisha consumption.

You

Thanks. Before analyzing, I'd like to clarify a few key questions...

Interviewer

Good question. Let me provide some background information...

You

Based on this, I suggest analyzing from these dimensions...

AI Score
Structure Analysis Communication Business Sense Quantitative
Practicing...
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Practice this case with AI Mock Interview

Saudi Arabia seeks revenue forecasting for legalizing public shisha consumption. Candidates must analyze three licensing models (Qatar, Jordan, UAE), select the optimal one, apply it to Riyadh’s restaurant market, and scale nationally while considering adoption rates and social implications.

Key Insights:

  1. Jordan’s licensing structure (one-time fee + annual fee) maximizes revenue across the 3-year period ($21,000 vs Qatar’s $10,000 and UAE’s $15,000)
  2. Market sizing requires combining adoption rates (5%/10%/15% over 3 years) with restaurant count growth (1,000 new restaurants annually) to project participating businesses
  3. Conservative estimates exclude sales tax and import tariff revenues, suggesting significant additional upside potential
  4. Critical risk factors include restaurant adoption willingness, public opinion on legalizing public consumption, and healthcare cost offsetting revenue gains
  5. Case demonstrates tension between economic diversification objectives and social/religious norms in Saudi Arabia