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Medium Profitability Market Sizing Product Launch Strategy

Resistance

#Healthcare
ProHub Comment

This is a two-part market sizing case that tests the candidate's ability to structure a market entry problem, perform calculations with multiple data dimensions, and synthesize findings across two business lines. The case requires understanding of pharmaceutical market dynamics, patient segmentation, and revenue modeling while evaluating whether to pursue multiple customer segments.

Estimated Time 26 minutes
Difficulty Medium
Source Duke
46 / 100
Action Med received many pharma products in clinical development as a result of a recent acquisition, including a drug, called BPL, to treat resistant HIV. The total cost of drug development is 2 Billion USD (includes R&D and anticipated marketing spend). Action Med wants to know the target patient population for this product, and how many patients will realistically take the drug. They also need to focus their marketing efforts on specific healthcare sites. How would you begin to think about this problem?

Clarifying Information

  1. Patients have resistant HIV when combination therapy fails to achieve complete viral suppression (virological failure). BPL treats patients who have virological failure after taking 3+ meds.
  2. A good framework will include questions about the cost of development, the need for market sizing, a view of the competitive environment, and the anticipated price of the product.
  3. Interviewer should probe on what kinds of data would be needed to calculate the total market size by healthcare facility. The interviewee should mention number of hospitals, total patients per hospital with resistant HIV, percentage of patients who actually take the drug (uptake), and price of the product.
Mock Interview
Interviewer

Action Med received many pharma products in clinical development as a result of a recent acquisition, including a drug, called BPL, to treat resistant HIV. The total cost of drug development is 2 Billion USD (includes R&D and anticipated marketing spend). Action Med wants to know the target patient population for this product, and how many patients will realistically take the drug. They also need to focus their marketing efforts on specific healthcare sites. How would you begin to think about this problem?

You

Thanks. Before analyzing, I'd like to clarify a few key questions...

Interviewer

Good question. Let me provide some background information...

You

Based on this, I suggest analyzing from these dimensions...

AI Score
Structure Analysis Communication Business Sense Quantitative
Practicing...
Score coming soon
Practice this case with AI Mock Interview

Action Med must determine the optimal market for its new HIV treatment (BPL) and assess whether combined revenue from BPL and existing API supplies to Sanofi will recover the $2B development investment. The case involves calculating revenue potential across three healthcare facility types and then incorporating additional revenue from Sanofi’s growing neurology market share.

Key Insights:

  1. Market sizing requires segmentation by facility type (private hospital, academic center, small practice) with consideration of uptake rates and pricing
  2. Academic Centers of Excellence generate highest 5-year revenue ($1.152B) despite fewer facilities due to higher patient volume and uptake rates
  3. Understanding competitive dynamics and market share trends is critical—Sanofi’s market share growth combined with BPL revenue exactly meets the $2B investment threshold
  4. Distinction between blockbuster drug economics (>$1B annual revenue potential) versus cost-recovery products is important for strategic decision-making