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Medium Profitability Market Sizing Product Launch Strategy

Resistance

#Pharma
ProHub Comment

This is a two-part market sizing case that tests the candidate's ability to structure a market entry problem, perform calculations with multiple data dimensions, and synthesize findings across two business lines. The case requires understanding of pharmaceutical market dynamics, patient segmentation, and revenue modeling while evaluating whether to pursue multiple customer segments.

Estimated Time 15 minutes
Difficulty Medium
Source Duke
50 / 100
Action Med received many pharma products in clinical development as a result of a recent acquisition, including a drug, called BPL, to treat resistant HIV. The total cost of drug development is 2 Billion USD (includes R&D and anticipated marketing spend). Action Med wants to know the target patient population for this product, and how many patients will realistically take the drug. They also need to focus their marketing efforts on specific healthcare sites. How would you begin to think about this problem?

Clarifying Information

  1. Patients have resistant HIV when combination therapy fails to achieve complete viral suppression (virological failure). BPL treats patients who have virological failure after taking 3+ meds.
  2. A good framework will include questions about the cost of development, the need for market sizing, a view of the competitive environment, and the anticipated price of the product.
  3. Interviewer should probe on what kinds of data would be needed to calculate the total market size by healthcare facility. The interviewee should mention number of hospitals, total patients per hospital with resistant HIV, percentage of patients who actually take the drug (uptake), and price of the product.