P
ProHub
English 简体中文 繁體中文
Hard Market Entry

NeuroNow

#Pharma #Pharmaceuticals
ProHub Comment

This is a sophisticated market entry case requiring candidates to build a market sizing model with appropriate population haircuts (incidence, diagnosis rate, treatment rate), estimate competitive market share using qualitative and quantitative data, and perform a breakeven analysis. The case tests structuring ability, financial modeling skills, and risk assessment in the pharmaceutical industry.

Estimated Time 15 minutes
Difficulty Hard
Source Columbia
50 / 100
Our client, NeuroNow, is a mid-market biopharma company having 2 products in the US market. They have developed a new oral medicine to treat multiple sclerosis (MS) which has successfully passed phase 2 of clinical trials. Before deciding on further investments in phase 3 and commercialization, our client is looking to project revenues for the drug in 2021 and would like to know how soon can they breakeven on their investment from phase 3 trials onwards

Clarifying Information

  1. It is estimated that 0.1% of Americans will suffer from MS in 2021 (out of a total population of 300mn in 2020)
  2. However, according to estimates, only 80% of the cases will be diagnosed and only 90% of the diagnosed population will receive treatment
  3. Patients undergo gradual degradation of spinal cord and brain cells and symptoms include impaired movement, speaking and other senses
  4. No full cure exists but injectable medicines are used for management of symptoms
  5. 1st oral medication to manage symptoms was introduced in 2016 and has gained popularity quickly over incumbent injectables due to obvious reasons. 2 more oral drugs have entered the market since
  6. Price of NeuroNow therapy would be $1000/month for 12 months/patient