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McKinsey Medium Merger & Acquisition

Adventure Capital

#Archaeology #Adventure/Exploration
ProHub Comment

This case tests deductive reasoning in an unfamiliar industry by requiring candidates to build a comprehensive investment framework that weighs multiple factors—costs, valuation methods, probability-weighted returns, and qualitative considerations. The key analytical challenge is calculating expected value by incorporating the 20% success rate and comparing the 80% actual ROI against the 85% required threshold, then determining whether qualitative factors justify proceeding despite marginal shortfall.

Estimated Time 26 minutes
Difficulty Medium
Source NYU
40 / 100
Your client is Idaho Johnson, an archeologist/adventurer who specializes in rare artifact recovery. They have just learned about the possibility of an incredibly valuable 6,000 year old crown buried in the Siwa Oasis of Northwestern Egypt. You have been hired to determine whether Idaho should launch an expedition to recover this artifact.

Clarifying Information

  1. He must self finance the dig, but he finds a buyer ahead of time and strikes the deal pending the recovery
  2. He learned about the treasure when a colleague came to him with a map she’s willing to sell to him
  3. He is currently located in Indiana
  4. The dig is estimated to take one year (12 months)
  5. He only wants to go on the expedition if he can make an expected ROI of 85%
  6. He believes he has a 20% chance of success of retrieving the artifact
  7. He has some equipment but would need to buy more for this expedition
Mock Interview
Interviewer

Your client is Idaho Johnson, an archeologist/adventurer who specializes in rare artifact recovery. They have just learned about the possibility of an incredibly valuable 6,000 year old crown buried in the Siwa Oasis of Northwestern Egypt. You have been hired to determine whether Idaho should launch an expedition to recover this artifact.

You

Thanks. Before analyzing, I'd like to clarify a few key questions...

Interviewer

Good question. Let me provide some background information...

You

Based on this, I suggest analyzing from these dimensions...

AI Score
Structure Analysis Communication Business Sense Quantitative
Practicing...
Score coming soon
Practice this case with AI Mock Interview

A McKinsey-style investment decision case where candidates must evaluate whether an archaeologist should fund a $500K expedition to recover a 6,000-year-old crown with a 20% success probability. The analysis reveals an 80% ROI (expected value $900K vs. $500K cost), slightly below the required 85% hurdle, requiring candidates to weigh quantitative metrics against strategic and personal considerations.

Key Insights:

  1. Frame costs into upfront, recurring, and opportunity cost categories to build a comprehensive total investment picture
  2. Use comparable data and present value calculations to value non-cash compensation (museum ticket revenue share) against lump-sum offers
  3. Incorporate probability weighting into expected value calculations when success rates are less than 100%
  4. Compare final ROI to explicit thresholds, but recognize that marginal shortfalls may be acceptable depending on qualitative factors like strategic optionality and personal motivation
  5. Consider both support and no-go arguments—this case has no objectively correct answer and tests judgment, not just calculation