An ERP systems company seeks to enter the U.S. convenience store market. Using a bottom-up approach, the analysis segments 10M convenience stores (9M addressable after adoption assumptions) by company size, calculates the number of companies in each segment, applies tiered pricing models, and arrives at a $90B annual market opportunity.
Key Insights:
- Market sizing requires segmentation: break the total addressable market into meaningful categories (small/medium/large companies) based on structural differences in buying behavior and pricing
- Validation against comparable companies: the $90B estimate is benchmarked against known competitors (Oracle $40B, SAP $25B), lending credibility to the analysis
- Pricing power varies by segment: larger companies pay significantly more ($1M vs $10K), which drives disproportionate revenue concentration in the enterprise segment
- Adoption rate assumptions are critical: the 90% ERP adoption assumption materially impacts market size and should be questioned in real client work