Firebird Sports must decide whether to launch nylon badminton shuttles and in which markets. The analysis reveals that nylon shuttles generate 25x lower profits than feather shuttles per session due to durability (50 vs 1 session lifespan), but create significant cannibalization risk in existing markets where Firebird has strong customer bases. Only the AMER market generates positive NPV because it has large unserved demand and minimal existing Firebird customer base, making it the only viable entry market.
Key Insights:
- In mature markets, new product growth must be evaluated against cannibalization of existing high-margin products, not just incremental revenue
- Customer segmentation is critical: Professional customers won’t switch (0% cannibalization), Regular customers partially switch (50%), and Casual customers fully switch (50% switch rate to competitors’ feather)
- Geographic market selection requires simultaneous evaluation of unserved demand, competitor customer bases, and internal cannibalization risk
- Product durability (feather=1 session vs nylon=50 sessions) fundamentally drives unit economics and customer lifetime value, making direct comparison essential