Key Findings
Plaintiff calculations are overly broad and fail to account for the impact of market and industry factors on returns and shareholders who are not damaged.
— Ex. The overall potential damages are $100MM versus $1.2B suggested by the plaintiffs. Shares bought and sold before the disclosure date were not damaged.
Contracts are a sufficient predictor of net income and showroom visit data were not material as was alleged by plaintiffs. (In this case, regression analysis was used to test the materiality of showroom visits.)
For damages calculations, a market model was used to partially offset the stock price drop on the disclosure day. The purpose of this is to estimate the share price return “but-for” the corrective disclosure.
Risks
— Financial and legal risk: while lower than $1.2 billion, $100MM in charges can be significant for Yarmouth
— Undetermined relationship between % of showroom visits and contract conversion
— Plaintiffs might debate the actual number of damaged shares
Next Steps
— Analyze company financials to determine if they can sustain such a payout in damages
— Analyze % of showroom visits that lead to contracts; identify trends for these data
— Find comparable cases where a company was sued for similar stock fraud to determine appropriate number of damaged shares