This is a classic new market entry case combining top-down market sizing with strategic launch considerations. The candidate must balance quantitative analysis (calculating a $4.32B addressable market) with qualitative assessment of branding, cannibalization, and regulatory risks that could make or break the launch despite market size.
The maker of Botox is considering expanding to the migraine market and has already begun clinical trials in this area. The product is expected to receive FDA approval in 2019. Your team has been hired to assess the viability of this product for launch.
How will you determine if the market is attractive? If the market is attractive, do you have any recommendations regarding how to launch the product? What concerns should the client take into consideration before deciding to launch?
Price: • The drug will be priced at $200/injection
Cost: • Remaining development and launch costs amount to approximately $5B • Manufacturing marginal costs are expected to be quite small • Annual marketing expense can be estimated at $1B
Attributes: • The product is a prophylactic injection given every 2 months • Offers similar efficacy compared to market leading option but without any side effects • When taken for migraines it does have some added skin care benefits
Competition: • The market leading branded prescription oral migraine treatment lost patent protection last year • Strong over-the-counter generic market for migraine treatments