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Medium New Market Entry Market Sizing Profitability

Botox

#Pharma
ProHub Comment

This case tests market sizing rigor combined with strategic business considerations. The candidate must calculate a $4.32B addressable market for Botox in migraines while recognizing that executing this launch strategy poses substantial risks around brand cannibalization and regulatory complexity that could outweigh the financial opportunity.

Estimated Time 15 minutes
Difficulty Medium
Source NYU
50 / 100
The maker of Botox is considering expanding to the migraine market and has already begun clinical trials in this area. The product is expected to receive FDA approval in 2019. Your team has been hired to assess the viability of this product for launch. How will you determine if the market is attractive? If the market is attractive, do you have any recommendations regarding how to launch the product? What concerns should the client take into consideration before deciding to launch?

Clarifying Information

  1. Price: The drug will be priced at $200/injection
  2. Cost: Remaining development and launch costs amount to approximately $5B
  3. Manufacturing marginal costs are expected to be quite small
  4. Annual marketing expense can be estimated at $1B
  5. Attributes: The product is a prophylactic injection given every 2 months
  6. Offers similar efficacy compared to market leading option but without any side effects
  7. When taken for migraines it does have some added skin care benefits
  8. Competition: The market leading branded prescription oral migraine treatment lost patent protection last year
  9. Strong over-the-counter generic market for migraine treatments