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McKinsey Medium Investment Decision

Adventure Capital

#Archaeology
ProHub Comment

This is a sophisticated investment analysis case that requires candidates to balance quantitative financial modeling with qualitative risk assessment in an unfamiliar industry. The case tests whether candidates can systematically identify and categorize costs, calculate present values for alternative revenue streams, and ultimately apply probabilistic reasoning to make a defensible recommendation despite ambiguity.

Estimated Time 15 minutes
Difficulty Medium
Source NYU
50 / 100
Your client is Idaho Johnson, an archeologist/adventurer who specializes in rare artifact recovery. They have just learned about the possibility of an incredibly valuable 6,000 year old crown buried in the Siwa Oasis of Northwestern Egypt. You have been hired to determine whether Idaho should launch an expedition to recover this artifact.

Clarifying Information

  1. He must self finance the dig, but he finds a buyer ahead of time and strikes the deal pending the recovery
  2. He learned about the treasure when a colleague came to him with a map she’s willing to sell to him
  3. He is currently located in Indiana
  4. The dig is estimated to take one year (12 months)
  5. He only wants to go on the expedition if he can make an expected ROI of 85%
  6. He believes he has a 20% chance of success of retrieving the artifact
  7. He has some equipment but would need to buy more for this expedition